There are as many varied and opinionated 2024 outlooks as there are people and investment firms that publish them. If you just keep looking, you will eventually discover one that fits with what you are looking for. Taking a step back, it’s helpful to focus on key aspects of the financial markets instead of trying […]
Read MoreTag: Inflation
Interest Rate Outlook
Where to start? Here’s a quick summary of interest rates over the past two plus years. Leading up to the COVID pandemic, the Federal Reserve had embarked on a slow process of lowering the Fed Funds target rate from between 2% – 3% to 1% – 2%. When the pandemic went into full swing, they […]
Read More2023 Outlook – The Year Income Generation Returns
As the Covid pandemic unfolded in early 2020, interest rates on one-year government debt plunged from 1.5 % to near zero in a matter of weeks. From March of 2020 to near the end of 2021, the one-year rate hovered between 0.05% and 0.12%. Rates that low are almost irrelevant. As the Federal Reserve launched […]
Read MoreCommodities Sell-Off / Supply Chain Improving
The supercharged pricing surges across much of our economy and the global economy are showing signs of abating. The news flow on reversing pricing trends is picking up so I thought it was time to take another look at where things are regarding price trends in important commodities and the supply chain situation. Should these […]
Read MoreInvestor Mindset
The correction in the markets has been hard to bear. In the face of this decline in the markets, our commitment to long term investment strategies has not changed. We are in this for the long haul and our job is to help our clients manage their way through such times as these. “Loss aversion […]
Read MoreGrowth vs Value – Coming into Focus Again
Since the start of the year, the battle between growth and value is in full force. It actually began last quarter and picked up steam since December. I have written in the past how important bond yields are when it comes to valuing a company. The sharp rise in the widely followed 10 year US […]
Read MoreWhy the 10-year US Government Bond Matters So Much
It should come as no surprise that the interest rate on the US Government 10-year bond is the most widely used indicator to broadly speculate on the future direction of equity prices and economic activity in general. US Government debt is generally considered “risk free”. Changes in risk free interest rates can be seen from […]
Read More2020 Year End Commentary
A year to put behind us. The combination of the COVID-19 out break and a hotly contested election cycle made for enormous amounts of uncertainty, the likes of which we haven’t experienced for many, many years. There will be lasting impacts from both of these events that will be felt for years to come. That […]
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